Is the Extreme Bullish Speculation in Oil a Warning?
February 06, 2017
Bearish Outlook

Is the Extreme Bullish Speculation in Oil a Warning?

The OPEC agreement to cut production back in late 2016 ushered in a further wave of enthusiasm that pushed oil and the energy sector higher, with the belief that the oil bear market was over and long gone.  Coupled with the Trump reflation trade enthusiasm, we have witnessed a very strong finish in 2016.  The price of WTI oil...

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2 months ago
Fading the Trump Hysteria
January 05, 2017
Protection

Fading the Trump Hysteria

The stock markets are first and foremost a behavioral exercise.   Investors are always trying to price in the future – 6 to 9 months in advance.  To put that statement into perspective, one must recognize that the market is therefore driven by perceptions and assumptions more than it is about realized certainties. That...

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3 months ago
“Buying the Dip” on REITs
December 05, 2016
Bullish Outlook

“Buying the Dip” on REITs

It is incredible to have witnessed what has transpired in the month of November 2016.  Trump’s victory has spurred a complete 180 degree turn in macro thinking. Some of the great macro men like Ray Dalio, Stanley Drunkenmiller and Jeffery Gundlach have discussed what is now openly believed to be a new growth and inflation...

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4 months ago
Using Options for Hedging Market Cycles and Tail Risks
November 01, 2016
Index Options

Using Options for Hedging Market Cycles and Tail Risks

There are many signs suggesting that the current economic business cycle, debt cycle and market cycle are in the mature to late stages.  In traditional manner, there will eventually be a peak to trough correction that will play out no different then any other time in the past.  As we approach the inevitable, the buy and hold,...

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5 months ago
The Divergence in Oil and Oil Stocks
August 08, 2016
Bullish Outlook

The Divergence in Oil and Oil Stocks

Something weird is happening in the energy markets… Oil and gas stocks seemed to stop caring what oil is doing. The divergences are staggering. What do I mean? Back in May, when crude oil was at its $50+ peak level, there was jubilee amongst investors. It has become consensus that oil has not only bottomed but is discovering...

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8 months ago
Betting on A Volatile Finish to the Year
June 01, 2016
Volatility

Betting on A Volatile Finish to the Year

There has been no shortage of volatility in the Canadian stock markets over that last year. It was April of 2015 that saw the S&P/TSX60 top at the 905.00 level and usher in a 9-month bear market decline that wiped out 25% of the value of the TSX down to the 680.00 level in January 2016. Over the last 4 months, the...

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10 months ago
Hedging Hope
May 03, 2016
Protection

Hedging Hope

Those that regularly follow my articles and forecasts can easily ascertain that I am a worry wart. Fortunately, or unfortunately I am always skeptical on overly optimistic views on stocks and the economy. So what am I skeptical on now? I am skeptical on the supposed turn around in the Canadian economy. Yes, things have improved...

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11 months ago
Has the Tide Turned for the Canadian Economy?
April 01, 2016
Index Options

Has the Tide Turned for the Canadian Economy?

The last two months have dynamically changed the narrative toward the Canadian economy. Over those two months, the markets have substantially shifted, including: 15% rise in the Canadian Dollar from its $0.68 lows to its current levels around $0.78. 27% rise in oil prices from their lows below $30.00 to around $38.00 today. 16%...

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12 months ago
Will Gold Glitter Again – Part II
February 29, 2016
Index Options

Will Gold Glitter Again – Part II

With gold having a strong start to the year and a solid 20% off its 2015 lows, the bulls vs. bear’s arguments have taken center stage. Let’s review both arguments. Bear Case for Lower Gold Gold is an inflation hedge and performs poorly in deflationary times. The most commonly referenced example is the 20-30% decline in gold...

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1 year ago
The Canadian Bear Market Roars!
February 04, 2016
Bearish Outlook

The Canadian Bear Market Roars!

I find a sense of irony that investors need to be losing 20% or more on their equity investments before the economic experts feel they can officially conclude that it is a bear market. It makes it almost meaningless to react to the news as often the worst part of the portfolio damage has already occurred. None the less, we find...

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1 year ago