An opportunity in commodities?
- Posted by Richard Croft on September 7, 2008 filed in Options Market
Are we near a bottom in the Canadian market? If so, there may be opportunities in companies that are in good shape, but that have been particularly hard hit by the commodity sell-off. Iām thinking of oil and agricultural companies as cases in point.
In the oil sector, Suncor (TSX: SU) and Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ) look interesting if you think oil will find a short term bottom somewhere near US $100 a barrel. Survival of these companies is not an issue ā at least not yet ā but the options command some decent premiums.
With SU trading at $46.95, you might look at writing the SU October 46 puts at $2.90 or the December 46 puts at $4.35. If the former is assigned, you net cost for the stock is $43.10 ($46 strike less $2.90 premium = $43.10). If the latter is assigned, you net cost is $41.65 ($46 strike less $4.35 premium = $41.65).
With CNQ trading at $78.65, look at the CNQ September 76 puts at $2.00, or the October 76 puts at $4.45. The cost of acquisition should the September puts be assigned is $74 per share ($76 strike less $2.00 premium = $74 per share). If the October contract is assigned, your cost is $71.55 ($76 strike less $4.45 premium = $71.55).
On the agricultural front, take a look at Agrium (TSX: AGU), which is trading around $75.70. Look at writing the Sept 74 puts at $2.45, or the October 74 puts at $4.85. The cost of acquisition should the September puts be assigned is $71.55 per share ($74 strike less $2.45 premium = $71.55 per share). If the October contract is assigned, your cost is $69.15 ($74 strike less $4.85 premium = $69.15).

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