A rebound in gold stocks?

With the price of oil heading lower, the threat of inflation easing, and the US dollar gaining strength, the price of gold has declined precipitously since cracking a record high in July.

With it, the shares of gold producers have also fallen off the table. Perhaps too far off the table. There is no question that a link exists between the value of gold mining shares and the value of the commodity itself. Just as we saw with oil companies.

But last week was interesting, in that oil companies actually moved higher on Friday, despite the fact that oil ended the week virtually unchanged. Which itself was surprising, given that hurricane Ike is threatening oil refineries on the Gulf coast.

The point is, oil may be heading lower, but the market seems to feel that at these prices or even at sub-US$100 oil, energy companies can still earn decent profits. Suggesting that oil companies may have corrected more than necessary given the outlook for the underlying commodity.

The same may be true for gold mining companies. At some point the price of a gold mining company like say Barrick (TSX: ABX) and Goldcorp (TSX: G) may have become seriously oversold and could present profitable call-buying opportunities.

The reasoning – as we are seeing with oil companies - is that the value of a gold mining stock has as much to do with the company’s margins and market share than with the actual price of the commodity. Margins are driven not only by the price of the commodity, but by the cost of getting the commodity to market. And in this business, low cost producers could very well gain market share. If we are right on this, then traders buying into ABX or G may benefit on two fronts.

The first of course, is the benefit that comes from being low cost producers with more room in terms of their margin. The second, is a bounce should gold actually rebound. Which could happen, if the economy is slowing and we get a blow off in the US equity markets as a result of a worst case result with financial firms like Lehman, Washington Mutual and AIG International.

With that in mind, take a look at calls on the aforementioned stocks. With Barrick at $31.47, look at the Barrick Oct 32 calls at $2.00. With Goldcorp at $31.36, you might consider the Goldcorp Oct 32 calls at $1.95.

As always, call buying is a higher risk strategy in which you could lose your entire investment. Although, on the flip side, the most you can lose is the cost of the calls. Still, this is only suitable for investors who can withstand the associated risks, and for those investors, use only speculative capital.

For disclosure purposes, I am personally short October 30 puts on Barrick and my funds have covered call writes on both Barrick and Gordcorp.

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