What’s in the Pipe?

The search for growth begins with sectors that traditionally move counter cyclical to the general economy. The problem is that everyone knows this, and the market has likely already discounted much of the potential.

Another approach is to look for shifts in sentiment within a sector. Ideally discovering a sub group that may benefit even if the broader sector languishes. An example might be fund within the Energy sector.

The market is well aware that oilsands producers have been running on empty. Effectively shutting down operations in an effort to conserve cash. But within the Energy sector, the natural gas sub group has been rekindling interest.

It may be a consumer shift towards cleaner burning fuels. It may be government incentives to encourage better delivery systems and more exploration. Whatever the reason, growth has translated into some decent numbers for delivery companies like Enbridge Inc. (TSX: ENB) and TransCanada Corporation (TSX: TRP).

Enbridge recently closed its books on 2008 and reported a 6% year-over-year increase in fourth-quarter earnings. Same story at TransCanada, where fiscal 2008 revenue increased from $2.31 per share to $2.53 per share, with profits up from $2.08 per share to $2.25 per share. TRP went one better, by initiating a 6% increase in its dividend (from 36c per quarter to 38c), effective with the April payment. Probably the rarest occurrence in the current market environment.

Historically the markets have been favoring ENB relative to TRP. But with TRP being the company most interested in returning shareholder value through a dividend increase, you could make a case that ENB has gotten ahead of itself, relative to TRP.

The key to this story is the recognition that a shift in sentiment is occurring and is likely to continue. Your stock choice should be based on fundamentals and, to a lesser extent, past performance.

In my mind, the fundamentals underlying this story are positive. My choice of TRP over ENB is related to the disparity in past performance. TRP has underperformed and increased its dividend, which are incongruent positions. My view is that ENB may have gotten ahead of itself. Which suggests a sell-off in ENB, or a catch up rally in TRP.

Traders might look at buying TRP for its rich dividend, and writing slightly out of the money calls against the position. For example, buy TRP at $34.50 and sell the July 36 calls at 80 cents. The 5.5 month return if exercised is 6.8% without factoring in the dividend. The return if unchanged is 2.4% again, without factoring in the dividend.

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