Markets Emerging
- Posted by Richard Croft on April 4, 2009 filed in Options Market
As the first glimmers of hope for an economic recovery begin to emerge from the wreckage of the deepest global recession since the Great Depression, it’s becoming increasingly clear that emerging markets stocks will bounce back strongly and quickly. Market action through March indicates how powerful the anticipation of a recovery in global demand can be on emerging markets.
Look at a relative performance graph of iShares EAFE Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSE: EEM) with the S&P 500 Composite for the first three months of the year. The results are striking, and could indicate an aggressive bullish play on emerging markets for options investors.
If you believe that emerging market stocks will see a stronger rally owing to the direct impact of a global economic recovery on export (and commodity-based economies), aggressive options traders might consider bullish positions in optionable exchange-traded index agricultural funds. The theory is that emerging markets will recover with greater veracity, which should increase demand for agricultural commodities. The Claymore Global Agricultural ETF (TSX: COW, Friday’s close $16.38) is a way to play that scenario.
The drawback with COW options is the lack of liquidity. The implication is that you would buy the calls or write the covered calls and hold the position to expiration. The COW May 17 calls are trading at 25 cents bid to 50 cents offered. There was no volume on Friday. If you buy these securities, you should only enter limit orders say maximum 40 cents.
Similarly with the covered call strategy, you would buy the shares, which do have reasonable liquidity, and write the June 17 calls at minimum 50 cents. Covered call orders should be entered as a net trade. Which is to say, you would buy the shares at write the June 17 calls for a net debit of $15.88.

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