Bear Strategies
- Posted by Richard Croft on January 31, 2010 filed in Options Market
The MX Implied Volatility Index (symbol: MVX, Friday’s close 19.38) spiked last week in reaction to weakness in the global markets. And there may be more to come.
A number of technical analysts have raised a red flag as the S&P 500 Composite Index broke support at 1085. It closed Friday at 1073.87.
Among fundamental analysts, earnings are center stage. And while better than expected, are not exciting investors. Mostly because there is concern about whether earnings are sustainable once stimulus measures are lifted. It is not about what you did for me, but what are you going to do for me?
Rumors about more problems in the banking sector surfaced on the week end. On the heels of US government attempts to rein in excessive bonus pools, there are now concerns about the health of UBS. Could we once again test the “too big to fail” doctrine?
Globally, China is reining in credit in an effort to manage their double digit growth. And Greece is looking for ways to keep creditors off their door step.
All in all a pretty compelling bear case; 1) higher option premiums, 2) bearish vibes from technical and fundamental analysts at the same time and, 3) sentiment driven by fresh rumors from the banking sector and 4) global uncertainties.
Having said that, you need to be cognizant of the fact that markets rarely do what the majority thinks they will do. Which means that this bear case may be nothing more than a short-term blip.
Even so, option traders have the ability to hedge against blips, which if successful, help you smooth out some of the bumps in your portfolio. Especially if you are predisposed to keeping your current equity positions.
At the top of the hedge list, you might consider writing short-term, at- or in-the-money covered calls on stocks you own. Or even buying puts to protect some of your positions.
Another approach is to sell bear call spreads. For example, with Research in Motion (symbol: RIM, recent price $67.47), you could sell the RIM February 68 calls and buy the RIM Feb 74 calls. For $1.50 per share credit. If RIM stays below $68 per share until the February expiration, you pocket the net credit. Your worst case would see RIM rally above $74 per share, in which case you would lose the maximum $6.00 per share (the $6 per share represents the difference in the two strike prices) less the $1.50 net credit which equals $4.50 per share.
With Bank of Montreal (BMO, recent price $52.00), you could write the Feb 52 calls at $1.00 and buy the Feb 54 calls at 25 cents. Maximum profit is the net credit of 75 cents while the maximum risk is $2 per share less the 75 cent net credit.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT, recent price $105.92) is another potential candidate. Writing the POT Feb 105 calls at $5.00 and buying the Feb 115 calls at $1.50. Maximum return is the $3.50 net credit, maximum risk is $10 per share less the net credit ($3.50) or $6.50 per share.
Psychologically, bear strategies are difficult to implement. Most traders are bullish, and if they are holding for the long term, want to see their portfolio escalate in value. And the portfolio might! Perhaps in the second or third quarter. But at this stage, there is a real possibility of a bear trap. And hedging against a bear trap seems to make a lot of sense.

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