On The Road Again

Here’s what we know. Americans now have universal health care and capacity utilization sits at a dismal 72%.

Now this may seem like two obscure comments. But in reality, they have one thing in common. In combination, they will limit US job growth into the foreseeable future.

Capacity utilization tells us that US companies have capacity to meet a significant upturn in demand. Meaning there is no incentive to hire until some of that capacity is mopped up. Add to that, limited transparency around the long-term costs associated with heath care reform, and you have a potent one two punch right into the stomach of the jobs market.

Of course a jobless recovery is possible. But high unemployment will always draw into question the strength of the recovery. And without clarity, serious investors will at best, remain on the sidelines. At worst, they will sell!

Having said that, US corporate profits are on the rise. Likely due to the fact companies have trimmed what fat they can, and are benefitting from stimulus spending. One could also argue – which I am sure President Obama will - that employed Americans, who no longer have to shoulder unbearable health care costs, may come to the forefront and spend. We’ll see!

The point is, investors are unable to lean on any statistic that will provide clarity as to where we are in the recovery. Or whether, sans stimulus spending, the US is actually in recovery mode.

I suspect that is the reason option premiums on both sides of the border have contracted. Evidence of that can be seen in the MX Volatility Index (symbol MVX) and the CBOE Volatility Index (symbol VIX). Both of which are on snooze control. Without clarity as to direction – up or down – premiums will remain low.

If you are a believer in the US recovery, the trick is to find ways to play it while at the same time hedging your bets. Enter the railroads. Specifically, Canadian National Railway (symbol CNR, recent price $59.99).

CNR has seen a steady increase in traffic through its North American operations. North America being the key point, as 51% of CNRs’ business is in the US, with another 26% outside North America. That makes CNR a company with a true global footprint. And, I might add, Warren Buffett’s recent purchase of the Burlington Northern Railway seem increasingly prescient.

Because of the makeup of railways in particular, they provide an excellent way to leverage a recovery. They are, after all, the most cost effective way to get goods to the end consumer.

CNR has an advantage over other rail companies because of its size and its solid footing in Canada, which is clearly in recovery. However, the real value in CNR, will ultimately come from a US recovery.

If the US recovery is real, albeit weak, options allow you to hedge your bets. At least, with options, you can play the recovery card with limited risk. And with premiums at contracted levels, the cost associated with that risk, is reduced.

Those of you on the recovery bandwagon – which is not by any means a solid position – take a look at buying the CNR July 60 calls at $1.80 or less.

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