Oilsands Potential?

BP Plc’s troubles in the Gulf of Mexico and in Washington DC have been the focus of business news for the past week or two. But for every cloud, there’s a silver lining – Canada’s energy sector has been staging something of a rally as a result.

Since touching a year-to-date low on May 21, the index has rallied nearly 13% – more even than the 9% rally staged by the Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Index since the beginning of June. Seems Canada’s oilsands companies have regained some appeal for investors, who are anticipating earnings declines for companies with heavy exposure in deep well drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.

Despite the relatively higher recovery and refining costs of oil from Canadian oilsands, at least they’re still producing. And according to Massachusetts-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Canadian oilsands are on track to become the largest source of US oil imports in 2010. As US domestic offshore oil drilling and exploration now undergoes further moratoriums, freezes, delays, pullbacks, and “kickings” (which, puzzlingly, the Obama administration apparently sees as the single best way to stop the immediate and continuing oil spill from BP’s single wrecked pipe in the Gulf), Canadian oil is likely to play an even larger role in US energy supply. Hence the increasing interest in Canadian oilsands players.

If this momentum continues there may be opportunities for aggressive options traders to leverage advances in Canada’s energy sector. Primarily in the energy majors that are major oilsands players, such as Suncor Energy (TSX: SU, recent price $34.44), EnCana Corp. (TSX: ECA, $35.24), Husky Energy (TSX: HSE, $26.71) and Imperial Oil (TSX: IMO, $40.67).

There are a couple of ways to play momentum trades; 1) if you believe the options are relatively expensive, covered call writing or 2) for more aggressive traders, a long call strategy. With Suncor being the most volatile of the group, I would look at buying the shares at $34.44 and writing the Sept 36 calls at $1.20. The three month return if exercised is 8.3% and the return if unchanged is 3.61%.

The other three companies are trading at lower volatilities. If we are experiencing a momentum driven trade, the volatility on these stocks may pick up, which makes them ripe for buying calls. With EnCana look at buying the ECA Oct 35 calls at $2.25.

Husky Oil closed Friday at $26.71. The historical volatility for HSE is 24.31%, and the October HSE options are trading at just slightly elevated implieds. Aggressive traders might look at buying the HSE Oct 26 calls (implied volatility 27.3%) at $1.80.

The shares of Imperial Oil have experienced the lowest historical volatility (16.5%) over the past year, and closed Friday at $40.67. IMO option premiums are slightly elevated but still attractive. Consider buying the in-the-money IMO November 38 calls (25.25% implied volatility) at $4.00. A 10% rally in the underlying shares should provide a double on this trade.

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