Protection

Is the Extreme Bullish Speculation in Oil a Warning?
February 06, 2017
Bearish Outlook

Is the Extreme Bullish Speculation in Oil a Warning?

Patrick Ceresna

The OPEC agreement to cut production back in late 2016 ushered in a further wave of enthusiasm that pushed oil and the energy sector higher, with the belief that the oil bear market was over and long gone.  Coupled with the Trump reflation trade enthusiasm, we have witnessed a very strong finish in 2016.  The price of WTI oil...

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2 months ago
Using a strip strategy in a volatile gold market
January 17, 2017
Protection

Using a strip strategy in a volatile gold market

Cedric Okou

There have been some major shifts in the bond markets over the last few months. Bond rates have jumped and the uncertainties have grown. At the same time, the gold market remains highly influenced by what happens in the bond markets. Gold is usually seen as a safe haven that can provide a natural hedge against bond risk. For...

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2 months ago
Fading the Trump Hysteria
January 05, 2017
Protection

Fading the Trump Hysteria

Patrick Ceresna

The stock markets are first and foremost a behavioral exercise.   Investors are always trying to price in the future – 6 to 9 months in advance.  To put that statement into perspective, one must recognize that the market is therefore driven by perceptions and assumptions more than it is about realized certainties. That...

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3 months ago
Using Options for Hedging Market Cycles and Tail Risks
November 01, 2016
Index Options

Using Options for Hedging Market Cycles and Tail Risks

Patrick Ceresna

There are many signs suggesting that the current economic business cycle, debt cycle and market cycle are in the mature to late stages.  In traditional manner, there will eventually be a peak to trough correction that will play out no different then any other time in the past.  As we approach the inevitable, the buy and hold,...

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5 months ago
Gold versus Gold Stocks
June 20, 2016
Bullish Outlook

Gold versus Gold Stocks

Richard Croft

Gold has been on a tear recently. Not because of any real change in supply demand metrics. This is all about defensive positioning against a perceived devaluation of paper currency. In short gold bulls are playing the crisis insurance card… again! I am not about to tell you to buy gold. I’ve talked about it in the past but...

243
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9 months ago
Is it real?
May 31, 2016
Bullish Outlook

Is it real?

Richard Croft

The TSX composite index finished higher for a third consecutive day. Might have been four had Monday not been a holiday. But… is it real? Mindful that a three-day rally does not make a bull market it appears there has been a major change in sentiment. Rallying in the face of higher oil prices is a shift in sentiment. As is...

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10 months ago
Playing Defence with Cash Secured Puts?
May 16, 2016
Protection

Playing Defence with Cash Secured Puts?

Richard Croft

I have a love hate relationship with Canadian financial institutions. Canadian banks are tough competition for someone in the money management business. As an investment however, they are well capitalized – more than can be said for many European banks – and pay healthy dividends, which are bumped up on a regular basis. Or...

227
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10 months ago
Hedging Hope
May 03, 2016
Protection

Hedging Hope

Patrick Ceresna

Those that regularly follow my articles and forecasts can easily ascertain that I am a worry wart. Fortunately, or unfortunately I am always skeptical on overly optimistic views on stocks and the economy. So what am I skeptical on now? I am skeptical on the supposed turn around in the Canadian economy. Yes, things have improved...

266
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11 months ago
Has the Tide Turned for the Canadian Economy?
April 01, 2016
Index Options

Has the Tide Turned for the Canadian Economy?

Patrick Ceresna

The last two months have dynamically changed the narrative toward the Canadian economy. Over those two months, the markets have substantially shifted, including: 15% rise in the Canadian Dollar from its $0.68 lows to its current levels around $0.78. 27% rise in oil prices from their lows below $30.00 to around $38.00 today. 16%...

177
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12 months ago
Volatility’s Impact When Hedging Market Exposure
March 16, 2016
Protection

Volatility’s Impact When Hedging Market Exposure

Richard Croft

Volatility represents the underlying stock price fluctuation, not the price trend. The degree of fluctuation can vary whether a stock’s price trend is bullish and advancing, bearish and declining, or remains in a steady range over time. Historical volatility can be calculated based on a stock’s actual past trading...

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1 year ago