With gold having a strong start to the year and a solid 20% off its 2015 lows, the bulls vs. bear’s arguments have taken center stage. Let’s review both arguments.
Bear Case for Lower Gold
The current arguments against gold are best illustrated by Goldman Sachs comments that this rally was an “overreaction” to the systemic risks from oil, China and negative interest rates. Read the full comments.
The commercial hedgers in the futures markets echo those sentiments as they have been actively locking in the current gold prices with short futures contracts almost at 52 week highs.
When you put it into context, one can quickly develop a healthy amount of skepticism about the excitement of the best performing asset of 2016. So what is the bull case?
Bull Case for Higher Gold
The current argument can be illustrated by Deutsche Bank’s remarks that “gold is still expensive, but rising economic risks and market turmoil mean investors should buy it for insurance. click to read.
Looking Back
We have been here before; when back in October we made a case for gold mining stocks, not based on fundamentals but on sentiment. Here is what we said:
Often the perspective of many investors is that the biggest profit opportunity is when a sector goes from “being bad to good”. Alternatively, over my many years of experience I have often found that there are opportunities for greatest returns when conditions in a sector have moved from being “very bad” to just being “less bad”.
Gold stocks have rallied close to 50% higher off their lows and 30% from the levels when we wrote the article.
How Can An Investor Participate While Managing Risk?
No matter how bullish an investor would like to be, one can recognize that off the existing price levels on gold and gold mining stocks, there is considerable downside risk if the investor is wrong and the stocks return back to 2015 lows. How does someone participate while managing risk?
One can consider buying the underlying stocks and overlaying the position with a protective put. As an example:
What has the investor done?
The investor has 100% of the upside of gold, no risk of being “noised” out of the investment with tight stop losses, or panicking out from day to day volatility. Equally, if the bear case was proven to be correct and gold declines back to its 2015 lows, the investor is guaranteed to have their risk limited to $10.00 a share over the next 2 months. This strategy is just one of many interesting ways investors can hedge and manage risk with options, when entering speculative positions in the markets.
Derivatives Market Specialist
Big Picture Trading Inc.
Patrick Ceresna is the founder and Chief Derivative Market Strategist at Big Picture Trading and the co-host of both the MacroVoices and the Market Huddle podcasts. Patrick is a Chartered Market Technician, Derivative Market Specialist and Canadian Investment Manager by designation. In addition to his role at Big Picture Trading, Patrick is an instructor on derivatives for the TMX Montreal Exchange, educating investors and investment professionals across Canada about the many valuable uses of options in their investment portfolios.. Patrick specializes in analyzing the global macro market conditions and translating them into actionable investment and trading opportunities. With his specialization in technical analysis, he bridges important macro themes to produce actionable trade ideas. With his expertise in options trading, he seeks to create asymmetric opportunities that leverage returns, while managing/defining risk and or generating consistent enhanced income. Patrick has designed and actively teaches Big Picture Trading's Technical, Options, Trading and Macro Masters Programs while providing the content for the members in regards to daily live market analytic webinars, alert services and model portfolios.